Image donald trump: the white house (2020) / image joe biden: gage skidmore (2020) / cc-by-sa-2.0
Third report of the electoral bull on the u.S. Presidential election
After the second debate between the two candidates, relatively little has changed a good week before the election.
Clear tendency for biden after the speech duel (8). October) biden continues uninterruptedly with still increasing values (19. October)
In some states, including several swing states, trump has improved by a few tenths of a percentage point and is also averaging just nine percentage points behind in national polls, which are, however, meaningless. But that won’t be enough unless there are some very massive shifts in the final days.
There is still an almost complete consensus among the major u.S. Election portals that biden will win a total of 212 electoral votes from states that have virtually always voted democratic. Analogously, trump is ared of 125 votes. That leaves 201 electoral votes in what are now 13 swing states, where majorities used to change frequently. If we currently ame that a lead of five percentage points is safe in these states, then biden will reach the majority with 279 votes, even if trump receives the votes of all the remaining states.
This is exactly where trump had to start and win at least one of these states in the final sprint, z.B. Pennsylvania with 20 votes. Trump surprisingly took this state from clinton in 2016, and this year he could again play a key role. But according to model calculations by election guru nate silver, biden currently has a lead of more than five percentage points there, and in the betting borse predictit has a 63 percent probability of winning. It is also entirely possible that biden will win additional votes from the three states of arizona (11), north carolina (15) or florida (29), where his lead is two to three percentage points. The best chances are currently in arizona.
With the corresponding eleven votes biden reaches 290 electoral votes. This is – as in the last report – exactly again the current state of the consensus forecast of the rough portals, namely 290 votes for biden, 163 votes for trump and 85 undecideds. Our pesm election borse has also changed very little: biden 315 votes, trump 220 votes, and 3 other votes. The prices are quite stable with daily fluctuations of no more than five votes.
Things are getting tighter for trump. A good week before the election, he is further behind than he was in the 2016 primaries. So far he has not been able to pull a final ace out of his sleeve.
Guest article by prof. Dr. Walter mohr, director of prognosys bewertungs gmbh.